---------------------------------------------
# Arctic Amplification Feedbacks in Siberia: case study of the Yenisei River Basin

Preferred citation (DataCite format):

  Panyushkina, Irina P; Meko, David (2021).
  Arctic Amplification Feedbacks in Siberia: case study of the Yenisei River Basin.
  University of Arizona Research Data Repository.
  Dataset. https://doi.org/10.25422/azu.data.17086889


Corresponding Author:
  Irina P Panyushkina, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research , ipanyush@email.arizona.edu


License:
  CC BY 4.0


DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.25422/azu.data.17086889



---------------------------------------------
## Summary

The submission includes 1) tree-ring data and hydrological gauge data used in
river discharge and water balance modeling, 2) Environmental Research Letters
accepted manuscript and supplemental materials explaining and discussing the
data.

Abstract

The Yenisei River is the largest contributor of freshwater and energy fluxes
among all rivers draining to the Arctic Ocean. Modeling long-term variability
of Eurasian runoff to the Arctic Ocean is complicated by the considerable
variability of river discharge in time and space, and the monitoring
constraints imposed by a sparse gauged-flow network and paucity of satellite
data. We quantify tree growth response to river discharge at the upper reaches
of the Yenisei River in Tuva, South Siberia. Two regression models built from
eight tree-ring width chronologies of _Larix sibirica_ are applied to
reconstruct winter (Nov–Apr) discharge for the period 1784-1997 (214 years),
and annual (Oct–Sept) discharge for the period 1701–2000 (300 years). The
Nov–Apr model explains 52% of the discharge variance whereas Oct–Sept explains
26% for the calibration intervals 1927–1997 and 1927-2000, respectively. This
new hydrological archive doubles the length of the instrumental discharge
record at the Kyzyl gauge and resets the temporal background of discharge
variability back to 1784. The reconstruction finds a remarkable 80% upsurge in
winter flow over the last 25 years, which is unprecedented in the last 214
years. In contrast, annual discharge fluctuated normally for this system, with
only a 7% increase over the last 25 years. Water balance modeling with CRU
data manifests a significant discrepancy between decadal variability of the
gauged flow and climate data after 1960. We discuss the impact on the baseflow
rate change of both the accelerating permafrost warming in the discontinuous
zone of South Siberia and widespread forest fires. The winter discharge
accounts for only one third of the annual flow, yet the persistent 25-year
upsurge is alarming. This trend is likely caused by Arctic Amplification,
which can be further magnified by increased winter flow delivering
significantly more fresh water to the Kara Sea during the cold season.

Funding: U.S. NSF Polar Office program #1917503



---------------------------------------------
## Files and Folders

Yenisei River Discharge at Kyzyl gauge, Russia, study includes three files supporting the modeling:  
1) Accepted manuscript 
Panyushkina et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e20

2) Supplementary Materials for Panyushkina et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e20
with details on the model description and additional hydro-climate maps.

3) Spreadsheet with discharge predictants (tree-ring chronologies) and climate and gauge annual data used in the NH-Water Balance modeling and the tree-ring regression model.  
Yenisei River Discharge at Kyzyl gauge, Russia 



---------------------------------------------
## Additional Notes

The associated publication "Unprecedented acceleration of winter discharge of 
Upper Yenisei River inferred from tree rings" can be found at 
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e20

Irina Panyushkina conceptualized the study, developed the tree-ring datasets, modeled and analyzed the Yenisei discharge, and wrote the manuscript. 
 
David Meko assisted in computer programming, modeling and in editing the draft. 
 
Alexander Shiklomanov provided hydro-climatic instrumental data and simulated WBM series. 
 
Richard Thaxton discussed and edited the draft, helped with figures drawings. 
 
Vladimir Myglan, V. Barinov and A. Taynik  collected the tree ring samples in Tuva and crossdated the tree-ring materials from STA and CHG sites.