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Emerald Ash Borer Adult Emergence and Egg Hatch Forecast (2023)

dataset
posted on 2023-03-31, 21:26 authored by USA National Phenology Network

Pheno Forecast maps predict key life cycle stages in a range of species to improve conservation and management outcomes. For insect pest species, Pheno Forecasts are based on growing degree day (GDD) thresholds for key points in species life cycles. These key points typically represent life cycle stages when management actions are most effective. The adult emergence and egg hatch forecasts for emerald ash borer was developed by Oregon State University, using the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform. The adult emergence model predicts the earliest date that overwintering individuals are predicted to emerge as adults. This event is predicted at 391 growing degree days (F) (lower threshold: 54F, upper threshold: 97F, method: single sine, start date: Jan 1).  The egg hatch model predicts the earliest date that overwintering eggs are predicted to hatch. This event is predicted at 830 growing degree days (F) (lower threshold: 54F, upper threshold: 97F, method: single sine, start date: Jan 1). The forecast is available for the full calendar year. Temperature inputs are drawn from 3 data sources, as follows: PRISM data are used from Jan 1 through the current day; North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) data are used from the current day through 7 months in the future and the most recent PRISM 10 year normal data are used for dates more than 7 months in the future. The model excludes climatically unsuitable locations for EAB using the current year's temperature data described above. Further information is available at USPest.org/CAPS.


For all inquiries regarding this dataset, please contact the USA-NPN. This data is subject to the USA-NPN's Data Use Policy.  

Funding

Enhancing U.S. biosecurity with improved pest forecasts and public engagement

National Institute of Food and Agriculture

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